Top related persons:
Top related locs:
Top related orgs:

Search resuls for: "William Edwards"


25 mentions found


If Trump is elected again, Stiglitz said, he could well pull support for Ukraine, sending grain prices soaring. For Stiglitz, the 2001 winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, America's appetite for Trump can be traced back a little more than four decades ago to the election of Ronald Reagan. "We've had 40 years of a neoliberal experiment: Strip away the regulations and lower the taxes — taxes are much lower than they used to be. But Komlos and Stiglitz don't place blame solely on Reagan for the growing economic inequality. Every European country that's had a wealth tax has walked away from it, by and large."
Persons: Donald Trump, Joseph Stiglitz, Trump, Stiglitz, Joe Biden, Ronald Reagan, , that's, Reagan, We've, Dina Litovsky, Friedrich Hayek, Milton Friedman, That's, Stiglitz doesn't, John Komlos, Komlos, Joe, Bill Clinton, Clinton, Barack Obama, insurrectionists, Desmond Lachman, Carter, Douglas Holtz, Eakin, George W, John McCain's, Holtz, America Stiglitz, Hayek, Friedman, Claudia Sahm, you've, what's Organizations: Columbia Business School, Business, Capitol, Biden, Trump, :, Good Society, America's, Federal Reserve, Budget, Bank, University of Munich, Duke University, University of North, Democratic, North American Free Trade, World Trade Organization, American Enterprise Institute, Bush's, Economic Advisers Locations: Manhattan, Ukraine, Russia, China, Beijing, Taiwan, University of North Carolina, Spain, America
Read previewLooking at the headline numbers, the US labor market is booming. OVOM Research/Bullandbearprofits.comWolfenbarger's views in contextOther market observers have started to warn of a weakening labor market in recent months. Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, shared several indicators in a client note earlier this month warning of a job market slowdown ahead. Pantheon MacroeconomicsBut whether the labor market actually weakens materially remains to be seen. AdvertisementIf Wolfenbarger is right and the labor market falls apart in short order, it could catch an exceptionally bullish market off guard.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Louis, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, There's Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Business, Labor Statistics, Fed, Conference, Treasury, OVOM, Pantheon, National Federation of Independent
Q1 2024 earnings season has arrived, and Morgan Stanley has some ideas on which stocks have upside. In a recent client note, the bank listed 11 stocks its analysts believe will jump on earnings data. Below, we've listed the stocks along with how much upside they have to price targets. AdvertisementEarnings reports can often be upside catalysts for stocks if a firm outperforms in the prior quarter or issues guidance for stronger revenue. With 2024's first-quarter earnings season entering full swing, Morgan Stanley has some ideas about which other stocks are well-positioned to surge this time.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, , Tesla Organizations: Service, Business
It's called a managed futures strategy. That's according to iM Global Partner, which has the largest exchange-traded fund — iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF) — that copies the strategy. Meanwhile, a managed futures strategy, with its short-term approach across stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies, is generally uncorrelated to longer-term bond and stock market performance. From January to October 14, 2022, for example, the Credit Suisse Managed Futures Strategy (CSAIX) was up around 26%. iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF)January-October 14, 2022 returns: 33.9%2024 year-to-date returns: 13.1%Assets under management: $988 millionFirst Trust Managed Futures Strategy Fund (FMF)January-October 14, 2022 returns: 15.7%2024 year-to-date returns: 7.3%Assets under management: $144 millionKFA Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF (KMLM)January-October 14, 2022 returns: 50%2024 year-to-date returns: 8.8%Assets under management: $284 millionSimplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF (CTA)
Persons: It's, , Andrew Beer, Seth Klarman's, Beer, we've Organizations: Global, Business, Treasury Bond ETF, Credit Suisse, Morningstar, Lucas Locations: DBMF, lockstep, VettaFi
Read previewMichael Hartnett, Bank of America's top global strategist, thinks a no-landing scenario is the most-likely outcome for the US economy in the months ahead. That means the labor market would remain strong, but inflation would also stay above the Federal Reserve's long-term goal of 2%. While that's fine for now, Hartnett warns it's a path that eventually leads to trouble for the economy and stocks. "We say rising no landing risks = rising hard landing risks," Hartnett said in an April 11 note. The fund's price dipped below its 200-day moving average in 2020 and 2022, when the economy slowed and stocks underperformed.
Persons: , Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, it's, Michael Landsberg Organizations: Service, Bank of America's, Business, Consumer, Bank of America, Landsberg Bennett, Wealth Management, Fed Locations: REITs, Ukraine
Since late October last year, the S&P 500 has risen as much as 27% on strong economic data and excitement about AI. Losses were steepest last week when Iran fired missiles at Israel, exacerbating regional and global tensions. But as more labor market and inflation data has come out, investors now believe a cut is off the table until at least July. The S&P 500 has now dipped below its 20-day moving average, like it did last summer when yields rose above 4.35%. "The VIX, SKEW and Put/Call Ratio all indicate that sophisticated investors are on edge and volatility could explode to 52-week highs in the weeks ahead," Essaye said.
Persons: , that's, Israel, James Demmert, Demmert, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Tom Essaye, Essaye, selloff, Solita, It's, Marcelli, it's Organizations: Service, Business, Brent, Research, Federal Reserve, LPL, MAs, UBS Americas, UBS Global Investment Locations: Iran, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen
About 45% of changes to S&P 500 analysts' earnings estimates are upgrades, as shown in the chart below, down from 50% in early 2023. AdvertisementSociete GeneraleHistorically, analyst optimism has been a good indicator for the economy's direction. Below is the S&P 500's year-over-year percentage change along with the analyst optimism measure. He says the S&P 500 is in a bubble fueled by AI optimism and could fall as much as around 60%. He sees potential downside of 39% for the S&P 500.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, Edwards, Powell's, Ed Yardeni, Let's, There's, Jeremy Grantham, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Business, Street, Nasdaq, Generale, Conference, Institute for Supply, subsiding, Fed, repo, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bears, Rosenberg Research, policymaking
That's why the duo, who are both certified divorce financial advisors, launched Divorce Friday, a financial education blog for those going through a split. "I know that women need more help when they're going through a divorce. Through the years, Pappas and Chen have seen some common mistakes that divorcees make when divvying up assets. "If they're going to be single now, the tax rate is effectively higher, so they're going to have less income with a higher tax rate, and that is a problem." 2024 federal income tax brackets
Persons: Diane Pappas, Chris Chen, Pappas, there's, it's, Chen Organizations: Census, Centers for Disease Control, Business Locations: State, New York
Weight-loss drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro are all the rage, and investors are noticing. Since launching in November, the Tema Obesity and Cardiometabolic ETF (HRTS) is up 24%, crushing the S&P 500's 14.8% returns over the same period. Pot and his colleagues at Tema are bullish on the weight-loss drug stocks due to the wave of demand they see coming. Novo Nordisk estimates that only 2% of obesity cases are being treated by weight-loss drugs, Pot said. 4 weight-loss drug stocks to watchPot listed two larger stocks and two smaller ones in the space.
Persons: Maurits Pot, Janus Henderson, Pot, Goldman Sachs, Geoff Meacham, Charles Barkley, Elon Musk, Whoopi Goldberg, Eli Lilly, Lilly Organizations: VanEck Pharmaceutical, Business, World Health Organization, Novo Nordisk, Bank of America, Bank, Nordisk, FDA, Amazon, Therapeutics, Zealand Pharma Locations: Tema, GLP, Danish, it's
Housing affordability has significantly declined as home prices and mortgage rates have surged. The average salary required for a median-priced home in the US has jumped 45.5% since 2020. A $100,000 annual income is now needed in almost half of US states to afford a median-priced home. This means that across the board, the salary needed to afford a home has risen. According to a Bankrate analysis, the average salary required to be able to afford a median-priced home in the US has jumped by 45.5% since 2020, from $76,191 to $110,871.
Organizations: US, Business
But with the market at an all-time high, now is probably a good time to hedge against potential downside, experts say. That's especially the case because there's an elevated degree of risk facing stocks, and the cost of some insurance measures is historically cheap. Related storiesThe S&P 500 also looks overextended on a technical basis, according to many measures. AdvertisementRosenberg Research"The definition of a stretched market is one when the S&P 500 gaps 14% or more above the 200-day trendline. Beyond extreme, in fact — back to 1928, the S&P 500 has only drifted this far above the moving average 7% of the time," Rosenberg said.
Persons: Jim Smigiel, they've, Louis Fed, Phillip Colmar, Colmar, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Steve Sosnick, we're, Smigiel, Sosnick Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Bank of America's, Survey, Bank of America, SEI, Fed, Louis Fed Inflation, MRB Partners, Rebels, Rosenberg Research, Interactive Brokers Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, Suez
According to Bank of America, valuation levels explain 80% of the market's return over a 10-year period. Bank of AmericaThere are many ways to measure valuation levels in the overall market. Hussman says it's the most accurate indicator of future market returns that he's found. AdvertisementThe Conference BoardThird, the number of US states with a rising unemployment rate is spiking, meaning that the overall unemployment rate should see further upside. BullAndBearProfits.comThe US unemployment rate is already on a slight uptrend, having climbed from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.9% as of February.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, John Hussman's, he's, Warren Buffett, Wolfenbarger, Stocks, Woflenbarger, Cam Harvey, Claudia Sahm, Louis Fed, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, David Rosenberg, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, Treasury, Bank, America's
Adam Craig built up his real-estate portfolio over the last decade-plus using the famous BRRRR strategy — an acronym for buy, rehab, rent, refinance, and repeat. But he has stopped using the strategy for residential properties and said it isn't something he'd recommend for new investors. ATTOMAnother risk to using the BRRRR strategy is that home prices are not rising as fast as they were over the last few years. 3 approaches to use insteadInstead of the BRRRR, Craig recommended that new investors start off with one of a few easier options. This way, risk is reduced in terms of the time it will take and money it will cost.
Persons: Adam Craig, Craig, Craig doesn't, that's, doesn't, Louis Fed Organizations: Business Locations: St
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. But Jim Smiegel, the CIO at $1.4 trillion SEI, thinks the stocks' run could be over soon. Tesla shares are down 32% since December, while shares of Apple are down 14% over the last few months. Historically, higher interest rates hurt growth stocks with higher valuations. 2 areas to look insteadSmiegel listed two areas of the market that look more attractive to him at the moment: energy and financials.
Persons: , Meta —, Jim Smiegel, Smiegel, There's Organizations: Service, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, SEI, Business, Federal, CPI, Vanguard
Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics' founder, predicts a significant US labor market slowdown. Shepherdson anticipates five 25-basis-point rate cuts from the Fed in 2024 instead of three. AdvertisementOne of the big surprises of the Federal Reserve's record hiking cycle over the last couple of years has been the strength of the labor market. Month after month, the US economy has steadily added jobs, and the unemployment rate has remained below 4%. But all of that looks likely to change in the months ahead, according to Ian Shepherdson, the founder and chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Persons: Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, Organizations: Macroeconomics, Fed, Service, Federal, Pantheon Macroeconomics, Business
Hussman FundsThese levels indicate the S&P 500 is likely to return around -5% annualized over the next 12 years, according to Hussman's math. AdvertisementBy the time the current market cycle bottoms out, the S&P 500 could well have fallen by 50%-70%, Hussman said. He predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 33% over the past year.
Persons: , John Hussman's, Hussman, he's, we've, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, There's, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Gary Shilling Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Exchange, Federal Locations: Miami
Like most investors that use the method, he was initially fixing up residential properties and renting them out to tenants. Instead of buying homes to fix up, he started purchasing commercial properties like office buildings, warehouses, and retail spaces. Related storiesThe better a commercial property is, the more rent one can charge for it, which directly impacts its value. In seven of the commercial properties that Craig owns, he said he has a 100% occupancy rate. "I'm just grinding way harder than any commercial real estate broker would ever grind for me because they have 50 or 100 clients."
Persons: , Adam Craig, it's, Craig, they're, he's Organizations: Service, Business Insider, Business Locations: San Francisco , New York City
Just because the current valuation backdrop isn't as extreme as 1999-2000, we are still in a market bubble, and valuations are even more stretched today than they were at the market peaks in 2007, 1990, and 1980." Rosenberg ResearchSecond, the S&P 500 is outperforming the HYG/TLT Ratio. AdvertisementRosenberg ResearchAnd third, even tech stocks, which have been overwhelmingly supporting the S&P 500, appear to be running out of gas, Rosenberg said. The same goes for Paul Dietrich, the chief strategist at B. Riley Wealth, who says the S&P 500 could fall 49% when the current bubble pops. The bull market has thrown egg onto their faces again and again: since the October 2022 lows, the S&P 500 is up a whopping 42%.
Persons: , David Rosenberg isn't, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, he's, manias, HYG, Michael Hartnett, Jeremy Grantham, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Dietrich, Grantham, Carol Schleif Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Equity Model, Dow Jones, Dow Transports Index, Bank of America's, Bank, America, BMO Family Office
But there are still a few small things to consider before selling that could help you bump up your house's value even further. 4 things to boost your home's valueFirst, Pendleton said adding a fresh coat of interior paint can add value to your home. Dark gray outperformed white in every single room that we tested," Pendleton said. "So it is a really good option, even in the bedroom and the bathroom, if you feel like, 'Oh, dark gray is way too much for my kitchen.' She added: "I'm telling you, dark gray covers a lot of imperfections, and it feels modern.
Persons: You've, you've, it's, Amanda Pendleton, Pendleton, Zillow, Soapstone countertops, I'm Organizations: Business Locations: Zillow's, soapstone
Investor interest in artificial intelligence has surged following the release of ChatGPT in 2022. Much of the focus has been on big tech companies, but Morgan Stanley sees the theme broadening. The bank lists 480 stocks that are expected to benefit from AI. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. But according to Morgan Stanley, the AI theme in stocks will continue to broaden out to smaller names who are helping to grow the technology or will continue to benefit from it.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Business
Read previewThe BRRRR method — that's buy, rehab, rent, refinance, and repeat — has been Adam Craig's bread-and-butter strategy for real-estate investing over the last decade. From $42,500 to $148,000In 2020, Craig purchased a property on the outskirts of Cleveland, Ohio for $42,500, according to a settlement statement. By this point in his investing journey, Craig had excess cash flow coming in from many other properties, which could cover his costs. This also puts first-time investors more at risk, given that they may run into unforeseen repair costs, Craig told Business Insider. "In general, if you're getting a property that's way below market that's a BRRRR property, the risks should be less because you have a lot more wiggle room," he said.
Persons: , Adam Craig's, He's, Craig, we've, that's, it's, doesn't Organizations: Service, Business Locations: Cleveland , Ohio
For Zillow Chief Economist Skylar Olsen, this means homes around the country that are relatively cheap should have tailwinds for appreciation in the years ahead. While cheaper homes in every market should outperform, Olsen also said that the affordability crisis means that lower-cost cities around the US are well-positioned for appreciation. In addition to mostly being cheap on an absolute basis, most of the cities are cheap on a relative basis. The eight cities Olsen listed are compiled below in no particular order. Median home price sale data (list price for Hartford) is included, as well as data from Olsen's affordability metric and average monthly mortgage payments.
Persons: Skylar Olsen, , Olsen Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Business, Hartford Locations: Hartford , Connecticut, Providence , Rhode Island, Boston, New York
Bank of AmericaIn the note, Hartnett laid out more evidence that a bubble could be developing in stocks. The current real 10-year rate is 1.6%, according to Fed data. Hartnett said a falling number of job quitters shows a weakening labor market, hence the Fed's apparent willingness to cut rates soon. February's inflation data will be released next week, but January's data showed that prices are still rising at a pesky pace of 3.1%, above the Fed's stated goal of 2%. Whether a Fed pivot is a good thing for investors depends on just how cool labor market data becomes.
Persons: , Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, quitters, Alejandra Grindal, Ned Davis, it's, Grindal Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, PHLX Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Semiconductor, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, Bank of America's, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Ned, Ned Davis Research
So when she heard about a particular tax strategy on a podcast about two years ago, it surprised her that she'd never come across it. Cost segregation. According to Rocket Mortgage, a cost segregation study takes about a month or two to complete. AdvertisementIt's also worth keeping in mind the rules around cost segregation from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. AdvertisementThen there's the cost of a cost segregation study.
Persons: Anne Curry, she's, hasn't, she'd, Curry, Bernard Reisz, you've, Reisz, It's, it's, , there's, I'm, who's Organizations: Service, Rocket Mortgage, Internal Revenue Service, Business, CPA Locations: New York City
Home prices in pandemic boomtowns have dropped since mid-2022, creating investment opportunities. Zillow Chief Economist Skylar Olsen says these markets are good for buying rental properties. The growing labor force in these cities should boost appreciation and cash flow for investors. But since mid-2022, prices have returned to earth in many cities. For real-estate investors, this means opportunity, according to Zillow Chief Economist Skylar Olsen.
Persons: Skylar Olsen, Organizations: Business Locations: — Austin, Phoenix, Nashville
Total: 25